Science Source

Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat content changes for 1970–2005

States that greenhouse-gas emissions have created a planetary energy imbalance that is primarily manifested by increasing ocean heat content (OHC)
Presents updated observational estimates of full-depth OHC change since 1970 that account for recent advancements in reducing observation errors and biases
Finds the full-depth OHC has increased by 0.74 [0.68, 0.80] × 1022 J/yr (0.46 Wm−2) and 1.22 [1.16–1.29] ×1022 J/yr (0.75 Wm−2) for 1970-2005 and 1992-2005 respectively, with 5 % to 95 % confidence interval of the median
Finds the CMIP5 models show large spread in OHC changes, but the ensemble median has excellent agreement with the' observational estimate: 0.68 [0.54–0.82] × 1022 J/yr (0.41 Wm−2) from 1970 to 2005 and 1.25 [1.10–1.41] × 1022 J/yr (0.77 Wm−2) from 1992 to 2005
States these results increase confidence in both the observational and model estimates to quantify and study changes in Earth’s energy imbalance over the historical period
Suggests that OHC be a fundamental metric for climate model validation and evaluation