Jan 10, 2017

Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential

Stephen M. Strader, Walker S. Ashley, Thomas J. Pingel, Andrew J. Krmenec
Climatic Change
  • Assesses the interaction of risk and vulnerability by investigating the tornado
  • Estimates how future changes in risk and vulnerability influence tornado disaster probability
  • Integrates—for the first time—projected residential built environment data and modeled future severe weather environments
  • Results suggest that, although the projected twenty-first century escalation in tornado risk will play a role in increasing disaster consequences and frequency, growth in the human-built environment is projected to outweigh the effects of increased risk on future tornado disaster potential
  • States that the combination of both an increase in risk and exposure may lead to a threefold increase in median annual tornado impact magnitude and disaster potential from 2010 to 2100